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Why the TFG will fail and fall in 2010  

by Aman H.D. Obsiye
Sunday, February 14, 2010


Brief Introduction

 

Since the 1991, Somalia has been a failed state; many see the current TFG (Transitional Federal Government) has a beacon of hope, but it shall fail and fall.  I am not a pessimist, but a pragmatist.  The majority of Somali people want peace and stability, law and order, progress and prosperity, but the TFG will not be able to bring any of these.  Let us put emotions aside and look at the Somali situation rationally and logically.

 

Neo-Apartheid

 

“Abhorrence of apartheid is a moral attitude, not a policy.”
Edward Heath

               

Problem:

 

The current structure of the TFG is based on tribal parliamentary representation.  It is known as the 4.5 system, where the main four clans get equal representation, sixty-four seats each, and the minority clans get half representation, thirty-two collectively.  This governmental system has made discrimination and inequality lawful; in essence, it is the reintroduction of apartheid in Africa.  When it comes to population representation, it indicates that some Somalis are equal to one (100% representation), while others are just half (50% representation).  This governmental system is equivalent to the United States having a racially structured congress; given some Americans full representation, while others are only given half representation.  Imagine the US Senate broken down as such: 22 seats for White-Americans, 22 seats for Black-Americans, 22 seats for Asian-Americans, 22 seats for Latin-Americans, and 12 seats for all other-Americans (12 is not half of 22, but you get the idea).

 

I have a question for the reader, how can the Somali people support a neo-apartheid governmental system?  People come and go, but institutions stay.  Currently, TFG is institutionalizing discrimination, hence why the majority of Somali people do not believe in it.  The last president, Abdilahi Yusuf, came and went but he left the neo-apartheid institution known as the TFG.  Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, the current president, has adopted this discriminatory system, hence why he will fail and fall.

 

Recommendation:

 

Until there is a system of equality for all Somalis, the Somali populous, in the Diaspora and natively, will not be hopeful.  If the Somalis do not believe in the Transitional Federal Government’s system, how do you expect them to support the Transitional Federal Government?  The neo-apartheid system of 4.5 must be abolished and replaced with a governmental system that institutionalizes equality and full representation for every Somali.  The international community must be aware of the dangers the current format of the TFG imposes.  There are two choices that the Somalis and the international community can make: (1) leave the TFG in its current form and watch it fail and fall, (2) or create a governmental form that promotes equality for every citizen.

               

Foreign Troops

 

“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

Albert Einstein

 

Problem:

 

It is historically proven that foreign troops can never bring peace and stability to Somalia.  The US, the UN, the Ethiopians, and the AU have all failed miserably in their military adventures in Somalia.  We have recently witnessed the army of Meles Zenawi retreat in defeat and humiliation, and we are witnessing the same for the AU.  Hence, why adding more AU troops will not alter this historic fact. 

 

Regardless of what the world media says, the Islamic coalition (Harakat Shabaab al-Mujahideen and Hizbul Islam) have grassroots support.   I ask the reader, how is it that the Islamic coalition is able to control and govern their regions, while the warlords were not able to do so for fifteen years?  It is not as if the Islamic coalition has higher tech weapons than the warlords, nor do they have more money (lest we forget the CIA giving the warlords 100,000 USD per week).  

 

I will admit that the majority of Somalis in the Western world do not support the Islamic coalition, but we only speak for the Western Somalis, not the local native Somalis.  We can say what we like while we live in a land of luxury, electricity, refrigeration, sewerage, excessive food, etc.  But logically speaking, the Islamic coalition would not be able to do, what the warlords could not do, without the genuine support of the local native Somalis. 

 

Solution:

 

The solution is quite simple; all foreign forces (i.e. African Union) must immediately leave Somalia.  They will eventually departure like every foreign army has done in the past; they should not prolong the obvious. 

 

Illegitimate Parliament

 

No wise man ever thought that a traitor should be trusted”

Cicero (Marcus Tullius Cicero)

 

Problem:

 

The TFG parliament is the most illegitimate parliament amongst its international peers.  For starters, the Somali people did not have any say so in electing their so-called representatives, hence why the majority of local native Somalis do not support the TFG.  Secondly, Somalia is a nation of only ten million people, yet its so-called parliament has 550 members. Realistically speaking, the entities of Somaliland and Puntland collectively represent two-thirds (population, land, and territorial waters) of Somalia proper and they have their own representative parliaments.  So in essence the 550-member TFG parliament only represents 3-4 million people; in comparison, the USA has a 435-member parliament representing 300 million people. 

 

The majority of TFG parliamentarians are former warlords and/or treasonous men.  A grand portion (50%) of the current parliament voted for the inhumane Ethiopian occupation, hence they have committed treason.  How do you expect the Somali people to trust or believe in the parliament who invited their enemy?  How can one expect anything good from traitors?  Can you imagine the US filling its congress with Benedict Arnolds?  The former president of the TFG (Abdilahi Yusuf) was sent to exile just like Benedict Arnold, and the current president (Sh. Sharif) while share the same fate. 

 

Solution:

 

Reconciliation must become a priority if the Somalis are to believe in any parliament.  All warlords and traitors (the parliamentarians who invited the Ethiopian military machine) must be put on trial for their crimes against the Somali populous.  Those who are found guilty can never serve in government.

 

Conclusion

 

In conclusion, the TFG will fail and fall before the end to 2010.  My prediction is a triadic political standoff in Somalia proper.  Somaliland, Puntland, and the Islamic coalition will all be at loggerheads.   The Islamic coalition will rule, what I call, the Southern State (between Puntland and Kenya) and will begin to siege Puntland.  The outcome of Somaliland’s upcoming election will determine whether Somaliland continues on its current quasi-democratic path or whether it begins to unravel, the latter is more likely. 

 

The international community must recognize the will of the Somali people; self-determination is a fundamental right for every human, including the Somalis (lest one forgets!).  If the international community continues to impose their government on the Somalis, it will only further exacerbate the chaos. 

 

Soomaaliya, Soomaali baa iska leh

(Somalia belongs to the Somalis)


Aman H.D. Obsiye

E-mail: ahobsiye@gmail.com


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16 comment(s)
More comments
 The points that the brother is making are valid.  The 4.5, 550 member parliament and foreign troops are part of the problem but are not all the problem.  He missed out the rest; the root causes of the conflict, clannish political order, religious elites that are imitating the clannish elites and dividing people along religious lines to achieve their personal objectives.  The prediction that religious groups will win the south and the nation afterwards will not materialize due to their severe division as well as international and local opposition to their ideals.  

I disagree though with the argument by some posts that Somaliland and Puntland approach is the right way.  They are not.  Somaliland and Puntland are controlled by the remnants of the elites of the clannish political order (SNM and SSDF).  And while the south made a progress into religious ideology, these parts of the country live in 1991.  No evolution what so ever.  Both these rubbish clannish political entities and their counterparts in the south (remnants of USC, SPM, RRA and others) should be eradicated along with the religious political elites who are endangering Somalia more than anything we have ever seen in our entire history.  Remember, Barre regime was also part of the clannish political order.      

Nationalist revolution, like it or not, is the only way out.  And the signs are telling us it’s the right time.
 I gave up after I read the first two paragraphs.
 VOA - Somali Service: Farhia Absie's resignation letter!
30. januar 2010  

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To: Somali Service, Africa Division, VOA, IBB and BBG top executives

Re: Resignation Letter

Date: Tuesday, January, 27, 2010

My name is Farhia M. Absie. I am a contractor for the Somali Service of Voice of America (VOA). I write this letter with heavy heart knowing that I have no choice but to officially give up on a job in which I love doing with all my heart. However, my boss, Mr. Abdirahman Yebarow Weheliye left me and other reporters before me no choice but to leave the Somali service of VOA. Not to do this at this time enables to diminish my credibility as Journalist and as a human being.

Mr. Weheliye’s Abusive Behavior

Mr. Weheliye is aggressive, and he continuously insults and demeans me as well as others at the service. He is unprofessional and the most incompetent boss I have ever worked for. He tries to make up for his short comings by putting others down. He is inferior to anyone who is not from his clan. This behavior has baffled me for the longest time knowing that he is responsible to lead a service that was supposed to be impartial to what’s happening in Somalia. A service that’s deeply needed by Somalis that hungry for fair and unbiased news and information. However, I just recently discovered the roots of his hostility towards me: I have made strong friendships with several of my coworkers (one was forced to resign few months ago) who Mr. Weheliye sees as enemy and people to be fought and resist against because of his clans political and historical grievances against them.

This behavior made the news room an uncomfortable battle zone because of Mr. Weheliye’s constant harassment of others he did not like due to their tribal affiliations. Indirectly, he tried to turn me against some of these people at the service that belonged to other tribes. These staff members that he wanted me to turn against were from the same tribe as my mother, and when I rejected this to his face, he took it as I siding with them and against him. I reminded him that this is the United States of America and the Somali Service doesn’t belong to any particular clan. I told him that this was a news organization, and the mission of the U.S for this Service was to help deliver accurate news on the plight of the Horn of Africa. I warned Mr. Weheliye privately many times to disengage from his clannish hostility towards me and others. I told him that I don’t like the clan system that continues to destroy Somalia to this day to become an issue in our workplace in the United States of America.

It was at this time that Mr. Weheliye saw me as an enemy to be rid off as he has done to others before. But I resisted, and some of the employees including me begun to complain about being signaled out because of our friendships or tribal affiliations. Some have now left VOA because of this targeting, but I have decided to fight against his behavior which fueled his actions towards me even further. I however, stood up to him many times letting him know that no matter how much he tries to demean me or demote my duties by eliminating my air time, the Somali people are not blind, deaf and dump. They know who the most talented broadcasters at the service are. It’s not something he can cover up with the nurturing and promoting of those that he thinks are not threat to him. Those that he knows owe him because they were hired unfairly and unjustly from the beginning. The most incapable and incompetent people at the service are those from his tribe. Most of them are uneducated and have no natural talent; they know that they would have never got any other job that’s not in a factory if it wasn’t VOA. That’s why they take his abused.

Mr. Abdirahman Yabarow Weheliye him self is a fraud in many ways and he know it. The reason why he can’t tolerate and gets intimidated by others and anyone else who is not like him is because the only job he has ever held more than few years was driving a Taxi in Washington DC. Somali people know who he is and the fact that his broadcasting record is completely fabricated.

I do not prescribe to the whole tribal thinking, I consider myself Somali and a citizen of the world---and I am deeply disturbed by the cruel mismanagement and clannish behavior of Mr. Abdirahman Yebarow Weheliye and some of his newly arrived clan members at the service.

The reasons mentioned above and many others mention bellows are the reasons why my integrity will not allow me to remind with this Service. Therefore, I am here by resigning from VOA.

I understand that those above Mr. Yebarow have chosen to turn a blind eye and to file behind him no mater what. However, I am hopeful that those of you at the top will have the integrity to open your eyes and seek out the truth of why he is having problems with everyone who is not from his clan, but not anyone from his clan. It’s the Somali way of life. When it comes to someone from your clan member against someone else, its common to always filed and stand shoulder to shoulder with your clan member, right or wrong.

The Somali service has no Somali intellectuals that listen to, it’s a joke. And the way it’s going now, it only contributes to the fire in Somalia. And will no way help the message that the U.S wants to send or share with the Horn. Most people have no respect for the service because they quickly realized how corrupt it is and the fact that it feeds to the same propaganda agenda that is responsible for the demise of the southern Somalia.

My future is too bright for this service. I have dreams that Mr. Weheliye and his small minded friends alike cannot even imagine. That’s why I am moving on. I list the following for future reference if anyone is ever interested. I’ll also attach an invoice that Mr. Weheliye asked me to do last year for someone who was not at the time a member of the Somali service. This information has been forwarded to the members of the media and the office of the Inspector General. This work was never done by this person who is a close relative of Mr. Weheliye. He decided that he wanted to reimburse her the money in which she bought her flight ticket to America.

1- Abuse of federal Contract

2- Unfair hiring practices

3- Discrimination on the basis of Clan and retaliation

4- Miss use of the VOA Somali Service to attain and to fulfill certain agenda which clearly undermines the U.S policy towards Somalia and the goals of the Somali Service.

5- Fraud.

It won’t be long before all the others or at least most others that don’t belong to his tribe follow me and those that left before me. I Have faith that justice will prevail and the U.S tax payers will not continue to fund the very same practices that keep on fueling the conflict in the Horn of Africa.

I thank you for giving me the opportunity to be able to serve my deeply wounded people and fellow Somalis.

Sincerely,
Farhia M. Absie


 "The Islamic coalition will rule, what I call, the Southern State (between Puntland and Kenya) and will begin to siege Puntland".

Obsiye, even a child can understand that you are one of those in the s*tanist coalitions abusing our islamic faith in your hunger for absolute monopoliy of power.

Neither puntland nor Somaliland has any lust to accommodate criminal gangs like doofaar Aweys and Bin Laden's lastest wife, Ahmed Godane.

What you called "southern land" can put it's house in order before talking about other's business.  You are so sadistic and your only joy is seeing fire on all Somali homes, right????????  
 Here we again.

Your article is not less then garbage. You are Dinlord’s apologists and belongs to those daydreamers who want impose Somali people on religious dictators.

Somali people are clannish and no one can change their mind in one decade, clannish democracy and federal states is the only way forward. You need to learn from history, the federal system is success history look Germany, Belgium, US, Russia, Switzerland, India you name it.
There’s no single religious dictators ever succeed leading his nation to prosperity.

What he is telling us is to accept these middle age minded warlords to take over the whole country. He hopes Puntland will give up soon when Islamic fighter put under siege from that time no one stays their way to Somaliland then you will rule the whole country by pushing from single button.

The man needs to learn that will not happen, Somali people had bad experience from that, the only way to rule Somalia is to win the hurts and minds of Somali people and we should build that trust from bottom up-region wise or call if you want 4,26. You will not solve any problems by waging war and the siege his is predicting-…..

What he should focus on is to how we should solve the mess in the south Somalia, and then one can seek Somalia together.



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