Hiiraan Online

You may be laughing at my title but it is a very real possibility that a caliphate will be born in Somalia led by none other than the feared Al-Shabaab Islamic group. Allow me to elaborate why this would be an inevitable scenario if the current situation in Somalia continues to be the case. I will enumerate the chief reasons why this will happen sooner or latter.

1. The Western countries chiefly United States and United Kingdom are backing an unpopular, incompetent and loathed regime with no allies to speak off.  The president, the parliament and prime minister, and ministers are household names known to have committed massacres, looting and rapes and have run warlord empires. They are not respected and would never be able to govern a functioning government.  They are busy stealing funds appropriated for reconstruction and reconciliation.
2. Somalis are tribal people; they are suspicious of each other. There is no central gravity such as nationalism, ethnicity, language that can bring together as they are one people, one language, one religion but that does not mean a thing, until a group is seen to embody one of these qualities. To their credit, the Al-Shabaab group (Former Supreme Islamic Courts Union Council) embodies one of these qualities Islam. They have shown to apply the rule of law (no matter how harsh it is) equally to all tribes that come under their domain of power.
3. When they capture a city, a town, or a territory, they bring the people to an open area and they tell the residents what their mission is, then they tell the residents to organize and then usually appoint one leader to run the affairs of the city but they always keep the security in their hands.
4. The Al-Shabaab group does show no mercy to those who break the law, no bandit or brigand can co-exist with them. The people feel safe to sleep when they are under their control.
5. There can be no opposition under their control. You have only four choices under the Al-Shabaab group. You agree with them be at peace with yourself and with them or you disagree with them and run away, or you disagree with them and keep silent or you disagree with them, voice your displeasure and die. In a country that has not seen a rule of law for over 18 years, this method works effectively.
6. The Al-Shabaab group is pro-business and pro property ownership. They do not mind if people are engaged in business as long as it is not illegal business such as tobacco, cinemas, drugs such as Qaat, or sexuality related such as music or dancing etc. It is funny that Sometimes, the Al-Shabaab group resembles the United States Republican party in this regard.  Less government and more security!

The above reasons are why we may see a caliphate in Somalia. But here is some other reasons why we may not see a caliphate as these are impediments to becoming a caliphate.

1. The Al-Shabaab group’s knowledge of Islam is limited especially when it comes to the area of Sharia law. For example, some of their followers may kill women for not wearing a proper Hijab forgetting or unaware killing is more deadly sin than not wearing a proper Hijab. Remember, I said some of their followers not all. They are too fast to reach conclusion in carrying out Qisaas (killing) to minor crimes that may not reach that level under Islamic Sharia.
2. They have members who have other agenda such as committing terrorism against other nations. These members know no borders, flags, or any International law. They are mercenaries who go wherever they think they can fight a Jihad. This group is the chief reason why United States, the Western countries, Ethiopia are afraid that the Al-Shabaab group may become a regime similar to Al-Qaeda or Taliban. This is a legitimate fear as these people serve no body’s interest.  They are threat to Somalia as they are threat to other nations. It is not clear if the Al-Shabaab group is capable of separating themselves with such as reactionary forces within them or they are powerless to deal with them. If they are powerless to deal with them then eventually they will be their demise as any civilized entity would tolerate such madness.
3.  Puritanical tendencies. They believe that they can make every Somali think and behave like them. This is a Utopia that even under the Islamic caliphate of Qulafaa was not reached. There will always be Sufis, Atheists, witchcraft, smokers, women not wearing Hijab, people listening to Music. These types of people will always be around and if they are not practical about these issues, then they will become unbearable in the eyes of the people.
4. Deficient in of International experience. These people are locals and they have very little international geopolitical understanding. Their words and rhetoric reflects their amateurish understanding of how the wider world works. They hugely under estimate their opponents and over estimate their capabilities.
5. Leaderless: In any Islamic uprising in the history there has always been a strong Islamic leader grounded in the teachings of Islam. Almost a Mufti like person that all the troops rallied around. The Al-Shabaab group lacks this leader or calls it Imam. They have many leaders in special missions and regions but there is no single leader that reached this level of Imam than can unite them. There have been mentions of Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, Sheikh Sharif and others but all these are students and have not reached a level of Imam.
6. Conflict of Interest: Some of the leaders are “wanted” men and want to have chaotic place to hide. It is interesting how those who want to create an Islamic State and those who want to be in a perpetual Jihad reconcile. Already, Sheikh Sharif’s departure from the main group may be an indication of this inner conflict. An emerging separation between those who want to create CALIPHATE OF SOMALIA and those who want to continue a perpetual war that would never end.

Abu Abdullah Al-Haaj
E-mail: [email protected]