A War of Miscalculation

A War of Miscalculation

By Dr. Abdishakur Jowhar

The UIC[1] has already made its mistake.

They threatened Ethiopia and stirred the wasp’s nest, but they have not bothered to prepare themselves with protective clothing. They had the guts, the belief, the belligerence but not the arms, the organization or the depth of pocket necessary for waging a war (Jihad) against Ethiopia. They believed their own rhetoric of god being on their side, of representing all Somalis, of having already taken over and centralized the whole power in the nation in their hand. They appointed their Emir, their war consul and declared their Jihad; effectively alienating both friend and foe. They talked the talk. And when it came to walking the walk they threw young bodies armed with weapons not much better than spears and a prayer against the well oiled fully equipped Ethiopian meat grinder.

The Somali youth stood their ground with TAKBIIR on their lips and martyred

The youth were gallant beyond belief; they threw themselves with gusto into the battle. They mowed down wave after wave of Ethiopian army with valor rarely equaled; in places like Mood Moode, Daynuuna, Idale, Bandiiradley…… They fought on nonstop. They fought on with little sleep. They fought on in spite of the shortages of food, fuel and reinforcement. But the Ethiopians kept coming. They came on foot, with tanks, with armored personal carriers, with heavy equipment and heavier mighty flying machines. The Somali youth stood their ground, volunteered advanced and martyred. Volunteered, advanced with Takbiir on their lips and martyred.

The leadership of the UIC has not stopped to ponder the meaning of the Somali proverb. “Gudun yahay ima goysayn haddaan badh iga mid ahi kugu jirin” (The tree lamented that the ax with wooden handle would not have been able to cut it down if part of it was not in the ax.) Young Somalis paid a heavy price for this error. Thank god that the UIC had enough sense to stop the self annihilation they inflicted on the youth.

And the Ethiopians are about to make their mistake

The Ethiopian leader will surely be able to take the land with his superior armor, superior logistics and superior planning capability. He will be able to afford the cost of this war at least initially as he will be allowed to charge it to the War-On-Terror initiative. Zenawi will be able to get a boost in public support as he tramples down on sacred Somali ground. Yes the Ethiopian may take the land but who will hold it for him? Surely not the dogs of war he brings along with him (the likes of Mohamed Dheere and Cabdi the Crazy). These filthy, morally bankrupt criminals have no credibility with Somali people anywhere. They have been rejected by the public long ago. They have no place in Somali society except as defendants in the court of justice for their crimes against humanity. Their presence as running dogs of Ethiopian occupation will only succeed to inflame the wrath of the people and enrich the ranks of the UIC insurgency that is being born and carefully delivered as we speak.

The war will become an insurgency. A guerilla movement with trans-tribal ideology, massive following and tight inner discipline will prosper. The funds from the war on terror will dry up as Americans are already becoming disillusioned with the war on terror. It will then be the occupying Ethiopian forces that will end up fighting with little sleep, little reinforcement and little food. Their nights will become full of terror and they will spend the days watching their back. Their death toll will escalate and then explode.

Ethiopian and Somali youth will continue to remain the sacrificial lambs as Somali soil turns red with the blood of the innocent. Some countries in the Arab world will laugh all the way to the Nile as Ethiopians will be too exhausted to engage in water arguments at least temporarily. Issayas Afewerki of Eritrea will be ecstatic as someone else fights his war with his Tigre cousin for him. Al-Qaeda will be pleased as the Islamic “révolution sans frontiers” opens a permanent southern front at no cost to itself except of course for few video tapes of exhortation and Fatwa. The only real victims will be the Somali people who will enter another phase of stagnation and self inflicted terror.

The Way Out

Somalia’s Diaspora leadership has a rare opportunity to make a difference. They have gone out far and wide to over to 15 different foreign countries in artificially baked dead-end Somali reconciliation conferences. Now they need to go to the one place where they have a reasonable chance at long last of making a real difference for Somalis- Somalia. These reconciliation professionals need to go to Mogadishu. They need go to Baidoba. And they need to do so now. The situation is ripe for Somalis to reconcile by themselves, in their own country with the help of their own people. No more Yemenis. No more Sudanese. No more Kenyans, Libyans, Egyptians. No more IGAD nonsense. No more holding Somali “unity” conferences in posh hotels. Few brave good Somalis are needed now to provide a face saving formula for both Zenawi and Aweys and to provide some space for rational dialogue for Somalis every where. No one is more qualified and more suited than professor Ali Khalif Galaydh to take on this initiative. Will he stand up now!