Thursday January 4, 2024
Protestors gather on a city street in Mogadishu on January 3, 2024, voicing their opposition to the recent maritime agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland. The demonstration reflects the growing unrest and concern over the impact of the agreement on Somalia's sovereignty. (Photo credit: SONNA)
Mogadishu (HOL) -The signing of a maritime deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland on Monday has sparked a wave of protests in Mogadishu, marking a significant escalation in regional tensions. Thousands gathered in Somalia's capital on Wednesday in a vehement demonstration against what is perceived as a direct infringement on Somalia's sovereignty, highlighting the complex geopolitics of the Horn of Africa.
The massive gathering, which extended into the evening, echoed with chants of "Death or victory" and "Somalia belongs to Somalis," as protestors expressed outrage over what they viewed as Ethiopia's encroachment on Somali sovereignty. In addressing the crowd at Mogadishu's stadium, Somalia's Minister of Interior, Federal and Reconciliation, Ahmed Moallim Fiqi, underscored the government's stance: "Are we going to accept that from [Ethiopian Prime Minister] Abiy?" His rhetorical question met with a resounding "No" from the protestors.
During these public demonstrations, Somalia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs took a significant step in addressing the issue on an international level. The ministry convened a meeting with ambassadors from the international community to articulate Somalia's position on what it considers a violation of its territorial sovereignty by the Ethiopian government. Acting Foreign Minister Ali Balcad reported to the State Media that the objective of the meeting was to convey the government's stance on the 'unlawful act' committed by the Addis Ababa administration, indicating a move towards diplomatic channels to resolve the conflict.
At the center of these protests is a controversial memorandum of understanding between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Muse Bihi Abdi, the leader of the self-declared Republic of Somaliland. The agreement, significant yet not legally binding at this stage, provides Ethiopia with over 12 miles of sea access for its naval forces for 50 years. In a pivotal and unprecedented move, Ethiopia has agreed to formally recognize Somaliland as an independent nation, setting a potential for further international recognition. The deal also suggests a stake for Somaliland in Ethiopian Airlines, Ethiopia's flag carrier and one of Africa's most successful and rapidly expanding airlines, although specifics remain unclear. For Somaliland, a stake in Ethiopian Airlines represents an opportunity to enhance its economic prospects and global connectivity. While currently a non-binding memorandum, this agreement could lay the groundwork for future enforceable treaties, potentially reshaping geopolitical alignments in the Horn of Africa.
Somalia's government declared the agreement "null and void" during an emergency parliamentary session and called on the African Union and the United Nations Security Council to convene meetings to discuss the issue.
Somaliland, which has declared its independence from Somalia since 1991 but lacks widespread international recognition, views the deal as a significant stride towards global legitimacy. Information Minister Ali Hassan Mohamed emphasized Somaliland's control over its land, sea, and air, alleging the Somali government's protest violates past agreements between Somalia and Somaliland. However, in Somaliland's capital, Hargeisa, public opinion was mixed, with some supporting the deal while others siding with Mogadishu's disapproval.
The United States, through State Department Spokesperson Matt Miller, reaffirmed recognition of Somalia's sovereignty within its 1960 borders on Wednesday, highlighting the increased tensions. Miller's comments come after the European Union made similar comments a day earlier.
Somalia's government has urged the head of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to withdraw its statement on the diplomatic tension, which Somalia views as inadequately condemning Ethiopia's actions.
Acting Foreign Minister Ali Balcad addresses a table of international diplomats on January 3, 2024, regarding Somalia's stance on the recent Ethiopia-Somaliland maritime agreement. The meeting, significant in its representation from diverse nations, highlights the global interest in the regional issue. (Photo credit: SONNA)
Workneh Gebeyehu, the Executive Secretary of IGAD, a key regional bloc, expressed "deep concern regarding recent developments in relations between the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Federal Government of Somalia."
Somalia, however, expressed dissatisfaction with IGAD's statement, criticizing it for falling short of condemning the Ethiopian Government's violation of Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Former Somali PM Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke expressed surprise at the lack of explicit support for Somalia from IGAD member states.
However, amidst this turmoil, Egypt, under President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, pledged support for Somalia, aligning against the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement. Egypt's move is not merely about diplomatic solidarity but also intertwined with Egypt's strategic interests in the Nile River politics and its own standing in the African continent.
Ethiopia, a landlocked nation facing internal conflicts and economic challenges, defaulted on a $33 million international bond interest payment. As per World Bank data, Ethiopia has historically relied heavily on Djibouti for its international trade, with over 95 percent of its imports and exports travelling through the Addis Ababa-Djibouti corridor. The nation spends approximately $1.5 billion annually in port fees, a significant expenditure for a country struggling with large debts.
Ethiopia's government has actively sought to diversify its seaport access, including exploring opportunities in Sudan and Kenya. A notable effort was in 2018 when Ethiopia signed an agreement to acquire a 19 percent stake in the port at Berbera. However, this deal ultimately failt to materialize.
The agreement offers Ethiopia a vital alternative to the Djibouti route for maritime trade, seen as essential for revitalizing its post-civil war economic recovery. However, the deal's timing raises questions about its role in shifting the internal narrative from financial despair to strategic triumph.