Following his historic win, Muhammadu Buhari will take over a country wrestling with insurgency and financial troubles. (Ben Curtis/AP)
By Kevin Sieff
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
KADUNA, Nigeria — In a historic moment for Africa’s most populous country, former military dictator Muhammadu Buhari won Nigeria’s presidential election, the first time in 16 years of democracy that an opposition candidate has defeated a sitting president.
With ballots from all but one of Nigeria’s 36 states counted, Buhari had won 51.7 percent of the vote, or 2 million more votes than President Goodluck Jonathan. Buhari is also predicted to win the one northern state remaining, where he had broad support.
Lai Mohammed, a spokesman for Buhari’s party, the All Progressives Congress, said Jonathan called to concede. Aviation Minister Osita Chidoka, a Jonathan ally, confirmed to the Associated Press that the call had occurred.
Buhari, 72, will assume power in Africa’s richest country at a time of crippling uncertainty — as public revenue shrinks because of the falling price of oil and a vicious insurgency threatens the country’s northeast. He has fashioned himself as a sandal-clad populist in a political class known for its exorbitant tastes and high-profile corruption scandals.
But his first challenge might come before taking office, if supporters of Jonathan contest the election results, either in court or the streets, as factions of the ruling People’s Democratic Party have already threatened.
Buhari’s victory marks the maturation of Nigerian democracy, the emergence of a genuine, competitive two-party system. Before this year’s election, many saw the People's Democratic Party as having an aura of invincibility.
Across the country, Nigerians have waited anxiously since Saturday’s vote for both the results and the reaction to them. The military has been dispatched to areas of concern in preparation for unrest. With Buhari’s victory, many worried in particular about the Niger Delta, Jonathan’s birthplace, which has a history of militant activity.
After the 2011 vote, hundreds of people were killed in post-election clashes.
Nigerian politics is still largely divided along religious and geographic lines. Jonathan, a Christian from the south, and Buhari, a Muslim from the north, had been expected to do well in their traditional strongholds. But frustration with the current administration, which in some places cuts across those divides, gave Buhari an upper hand.
Buhari’s religion gained him no support among Islamist insurgents in the northeast. He appeared to be a target in bombings here last year which have been attributed to the Boko Haram militant group.
Buhari has been deeply critical of Jonathan’s failure to defeat Boko Haram, which has grown steadily since 2009 in the absence of a concerted military campaign, killing at least 10,000 people. Buhari has played up his background as “a military man,” suggesting that he will reform the country’s fledgling security forces.
In the past two months, a counterinsurgency operation — backed by Niger, Cameroon and Chad — appears to have driven the Islamist militants from key strongholds in the north. But it will be up to the next president to root out the militants from their rural hideouts.
Buhari has articulated a commitment to reforming Nigeria’s public institutions, which have long been plagued by corruption. That message appears to have resonated with voters. But following through on that plan will be an enormous challenge, as Nigeria’s patronage networks are entrenched. In 2013, the Central Bank chairman accused the government of losing $20 billion in revenue, a scandal that was never fully resolved.
“Nigerians expect to see immediate change. They expect to see corruption end right away, but corruption is an institutional problem here. It is a way of life,” said Idayat Hassan, director of the Centre for Democracy and Development, an Abuja-based think tank.
Many of Buhari’s supporters expect him not only to rid the country of graft but to arrest previous leaders for their role in corrupt activities. But doing so could widen the country’s ethno-political rift.
During his rule from 1984 to 1985, Buhari, 72, attempted to crack down on those he saw as guilty of corruption and malfeasance. He set up military tribunals that sentenced hundreds of people to prison, actions that some viewed as necessary but many others considered repressive. He also limited press freedom. He called his approach to governance then a “war on indiscipline.”
But Nigeria has evolved since Buhari’s military regime. This is his fourth time running for president, and he has traded green military attire for a traditional flowing robe.
At a speech in London last month, he described himself as “a converted democrat who is ready to operate under democratic norms.”
His victory was celebrated across northern Nigeria, where the primary Muslim population came out in droves for Buhari, who was born in northern Katsina state. Buhari has emphasized the need for secular rule and chose Yemi Osinbajo, a Christian pastor, as his running mate. But Buhari will still have to navigate Nigeria’s religious fault line, which has been reflected in sensational headlines about his plans to “Islamicize” Nigeria.
Any post-election strife in the oil-rich Delta region would not only affect a peaceful transfer of power but also strike a blow to the government’s revenue stream. Thirty-five percent of Nigeria’s GDP comes from oil and gas revenue, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
On Monday, the United States and Britain said Nigeria’s election results “may be subject to deliberate political interference,” a harsh warning that raised questions about whether the results would be perceived as legitimate.
“The question has always been whether the loser in this election would accept the results or not,” said John Campbell, a former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria who is now at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “The answer to that questions is unclear.”
This time, though, some are predicting a more peaceful outcome than in 2011.
Before the polling, Jonathan announced in a radio broadcast that Nigerians should “graciously accept” the election outcome.
“My sense is that demonstrations will take place, but the level of violence won’t be much,” said Chom Bagu, country director for the Search for Common Ground, a Washington-based group that works on conflict resolution. “There will be controlled demonstrations and people will be directed to the courts.”