2014-10-21
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The Ogaden cause and its implications for regional security


Monday, October 29, 2012

Any hopes for an imminent end to conflict in Ethiopia’s Somali region were dashed earlier this month when talks between the government and the separatist Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) broke down.

Hosted by Kenya's government in Nairobi, the negotiations started in September, with Ethiopia's delegation led by Defence Minister Siraj Fegessa and the ONLF team headed by Abdirahman Mahdi, the group's foreign secretary. Meeting on September 6 and 7, the two sides agreed on the modalities of the negotiation process, the general principles that would form the basis of resolving the conflict and the initial agenda, ONLF said in a statement.

Despite optimism from both parties, the talks fell at the first hurdle, with the Ethiopian government insisting the rebels first accept the country's constitution, a demand rejected by the ONLF as a breach of the talks’ agreed modalities.

We take a look at the ONLF and the implications of continued rebellion for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa region.

Who are the ONLF rebels?

Founded in the early 1980s, when much of Ethiopia was still ravaged by civil war, the ONLF aims to create an independent state in Ethiopia's southeastern Ogaden territory, which is mainly inhabited by ethnic Somalis.

The Ogaden territory is located in the Somali Region, one of nine ethnically based administrative regions in the country. Poorly developed for decades due to neglect from the central government, the territory has enjoyed relative stability and development under the current Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which has governed the country since 1991.

The party's regional affiliate, the Ethiopian Somali People's Democratic Party, says significant advances have been seen in the expansion of education, health, potable water, roads, electricity and telecommunication facilities.

The ONLF insurgency began in 1984, furthering earlier attempts either to separate the region or join it to neighbouring Somalia. The group partnered with the EPRDF in the 1991 removal of junta leader Mengistu Haile Mariam, after which the two groups effectively governed the Somali region as part of a transitional government.

In 1994, following disagreements over the country's transition, the ONLF re-started its insurgency, demanding the right to self-determination. The group says it will use any means necessary - including violence - to unseat the central government.

When two elephants fight, it's the grass that suffers

Though the ONLF fighters had, over the years, mounted several attacks, including assassinating and injuring regional government leaders, it remained a low-level insurgency for years. An April 2007 attack on a Chinese-run oil field in the region brought the conflict to the fore; at least 65 Ethiopians and nine Chinese oil workers were killed in the attack. Seven Chinese nationals were taken captive in the incident. ONLF had accused the government of forcibly relocating the local population to allow for oil and gas exploration.

In September 2007, a UN humanitarian assessment mission to the region found a "pervasive fear for individual safety and security" among the population caught between the government and the ONLF. They expressed concerns about deteriorating food security, protection and healthcare in the region.

Since the 2007 attack, Ethiopian forces have maintained a large presence in the region, and the government's efforts to explore its natural gas and oil potential there have continued.

Anti-terrorism a pretext?

In 2009, the Ethiopian parliament passed an anti-terrorism law that has been much-criticized by rights groups.

According to Laetitia Bader, a Human Rights Watch researcher on Ethiopia, the law’s definition of terrorism is too broad and vague, and can be interpreted to include peaceful protests and lawful speech. She noted that it also contains several alarming provisions, including one on pre-trial detention that allows suspects to be held in custody for up to four months without charge.

In 2010, parliament took another controversial step, naming three domestic opposition groups - including the ONLF - as "terrorists" alongside international groups like Al-Qaeda and Al-Shabaab.

As the ONLF insurgency threatens to return to high gear, many are concerned about its regional implications

All three groups operate freely in European countries and the US, where they have offices and representatives. At the 2011 UN General Assembly, then-Deputy Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, now Ethiopia’s prime minister, criticised Western countries, particularly the US, for having double standards in their categorisation of terrorist groups.

Ethiopian authorities launched a campaign to prosecute people with perceived ties to these three organizations. In its 2011 country report, Amnesty International said that by November 2011, 107 opposition politicians, activists and journalists were prosecuted under the law; some later received severe sentences.

The Committee to Protect Journalists says 11 journalists, including two Swedes arrested for reporting on the ONLF, were imprisoned under the law. The government later pardoned the pair, releasing them in September after they spent 14 months in jail. In another high-profile terror case, a UN security officer was sentenced to 7 years and 8 months for allegedly passing information to the ONLF.

Both sides guilty of rights violations

Right groups have accused both the government forces and ONLF fighters of multiple human right violations, including killings and halting deliveries of food and medicine to civilians.

A 2008 Human Rights Watch report alleged the government was conducting forced relocations and forced recruitment and accused the ONLF of conducting summary executions and illegal detentions.

Gunmen reportedly affiliated with the ONLF attacked a UN World Food Programme (WFP) vehicle in May 2011, killing its driver and injuring one other staff member. According to a US State Department report, the attackers "also kidnapped two other WFP employees in the vehicle. The ONLF admitted that it had the two employees in its custody without taking responsibility for the attack. On June 30, the ONLF released the two WFP employees unharmed."

The report says civilians, international NGOs, and other aid organizations operating in the Somali region blamed government security forces, local militias, and the ONLF for abuses such as arbitrary arrests meant to intimidate civilians.

A 2011 Amnesty Internationalreport said refugee children had reported being forcibly recruited by the ONLF in Kenya and trafficked back to Ethiopia to serve as porters and cooks.

In May, Human Rights Watch reported that an Ethiopian government-backed paramilitary force summarily executed 10 men during a March 2012 operation in the region. The allegations were strongly denied by the government.

Why did the peace talks fail?

In October 2010, the Ethiopian government said it had reached a peace deal with a major faction of the ONLF. Euphoric crowds sang at a ceremony at Addis Ababa's Sheraton Hotel, where a peace agreement was inked, pledging the termination of the ONLF insurgency.

The remaining insurgents denounced the peace deal and vowed to continue their bid for secession, calling the faction that signed the deal "a creation of the Ethiopian regime".

Even as it denounced previous peace deals and continued to fight, the ONLF maintained it was ready to talk with the central government, and the September talks in Nairobi were hailed by both sides. Still, pundits were wary. The government had described the talks only as part of efforts "to bring all concerned to the constitutional framework", while the ONLF had long rejected any allegiance to the country's basic law.

As the two sides were about to enter formal negotiations in mid-October, the government made the rebels’ recognition of the federal constitution a precondition for the talks to proceed. News outlets quoted the ONLF's chief negotiator Mahdi saying that the movement predated the constitution and that the group should not be forced to recognise it.

Regional implications

As the insurgency threatens to return to high gear, many are concerned about its regional implications. Ethiopia has routinely accused neighbouring Eritrea of supporting the ONLF; in February, the UN's Somalia and Eritrea Monitoring Group reported to the UN Security Council that it had evidence of Eritrea's support of the ONLF and another Ethiopian separatist group, the Oromo Liberation Front.

Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a brutal border war in 1998-2000, and tensions between the two countries remain high. In March, the Ethiopian army said it had attacked military camps 18km inside Eritrea; the targets were three military camps where it said the Eritrean government has been training and arming terrorists.

The newly elected Somalia government is backed by Ethiopia and was also welcomed by the ONLF, but continued fighting in Ethiopia's Somali region could threaten Somalia's tenuous stability. In the past, efforts by Ethiopian forces to root out the Al-Shabaab militia in Somalia were resisted by the ONLF, who attacked conveys carrying Ethiopian soldiers.

At the time, Meles said the intervention in Somalia also targeted the ONLF and other rebel groups.





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