Opinion among American experts on Somalia appears to have turned decisively against continued US support for the Transitional Federal Government (TFG).
As an alternative, some analysts are urging the Obama administration to initiate dialogue with Al-Shabaab, the Islamist insurgency that controls much of Somalia.
But key US policymakers still regard such a move as anathema because of Shabaab’s links to Osama bin Laden’s Al Qa’ida network, which is blamed for the attack on the United States in 2001.
And despite their own frustrations with the TFG, the White House and the State Department do not seem ready to abandon the entity they regard as the only potentially viable US partner in Somalia.
The United States has made a considerable investment in the TFG in the form of tonnes of weaponry, millions of dollars of aid, and help in training its army and police.
Influential figures in the US Congress who have supported the TFG are meanwhile expressing dismay over reports that it has recruited thousands of child soldiers.
The lawmakers note that the United States may in effect be supporting this practice through the assistance it has provided to the TFG’s military units.
At the same time, there is little enthusiasm in Washington for Kenya’s call for the upgrading and expansion of the African Union military unit in Somalia (Amisom).
A source in the US Congress says it is unlikely that either the Obama administration or the United Nations will consent to the proposal to transform Amisom into a larger UN-administered force.
This source says the US has not been able to coax African states into supplying the 8,000 troops envisioned for Amisom, which currently consists of about 5,000 soldiers from Uganda, Burundi and Djibouti.
And countries outside the continent have shown no interest in volunteering troops for UN military deployment in Somalia.
Disdain for the TFG’s performance was sharply expressed at a recent session of the US House of Representatives’ Africa subcommittee.
Ken Menkhaus, regarded as one of the foremost Somalia scholars in the United States, told the panel that continued support for the TFG will undermine US security.
Backing for the TFG has had “the effect of prolonging political conditions within which a radical Islamist insurgency has thrived,” Prof Menkhaus said.
There is a greater danger of terrorist attacks by Somalia-based militants today than in 2004 when the TFG was formed, he added.
“It is very possible that at some point an Al-Shabaab cell could opt to launch a terrorist attack in Kenya or elsewhere,” Prof Menkhaus warned.
Calling the TFG “a government on paper only,” he said it has “utterly failed” to broaden its ranks and to extend its writ beyond a few neighbourhoods in Mogadishu.
“It has done nothing to improve the security of its citizens or provide them access to basic services,” Prof Menkhaus continued.
“And it has not proven to be a useful partner for external states seeking to monitor and reduce the security threats emanating from Somalia.”
Most of the thousands of TFG troops trained and armed through US assistance have deserted or defected to Al-Shabaab, he added.
“The uncontrolled, predatory behaviour of the TFG’s police force against the civilian population has driven some Somalis to support Al-Shabaab out of fear and anger,” Prof Menkhaus said.
“The corruption and extortion TFG officials have engaged in have deeply alienated the Somali business community, a potentially important source of political moderation and pragmatism in the country,” he said.
Prof Menkhaus’ comments follow a report in March for the Council on Foreign Relations, an influential Washington-based NGO, that called for “constructive disengagement” from the TFG.
The report’s author, Bronwyn Bruton, suggested that the Obama administration should accept Al-Shabaab rule in Somalia in exchange for guarantees that it will refrain from “both regional aggression and support for international jihad.
Ted Dagne, a Somalia expert with the US Congressional Research Service, has suggested that the international community should consider engagement with Al-Shabaab.
Prof Menkhaus took the same position at the recent Africa subcommittee hearing, saying “the US and other donor states should actively pursue a policy of diversification in Somalia, working pragmatically with whatever local authorities they identify on the ground who are relatively legitimate, powerful and accountable to their communities.”
Many Islamist fighters could be weaned from the movement “if the US government is flexible and pragmatic enough to engage parts of Al-Shabaab in quiet dialogue,” Prof Menkhaus declared.
The need for a more pragmatic US approach was also emphasised by Prof J Peter Pham, another Somalia expert who serves as senior vice-president of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy.
“If you want to engage the forces capable of co-operating, you will need to deal with Somaliland, Puntland and any other entity which emerged from the wreckage of the failed Somali state,” Prof Pham told The EastAfrican.