Wednesday, March 10, 2010

MOGADISHU, Somalia, March 10 (UPI) -- The Western-backed Transitional Federal Government mustered several thousand troops, some reportedly trained in neighboring Kenya, for a major offensive against the Islamic al-Shebab militia allied with al-Qaida.

On its own, the shaky TFG, which controls a few blocks of the disputed capital Mogadishu around the much-shelled presidential palace and not much else, would have little real prospect of winning much ground from the battle-hardened militia fighters who have kept them penned up in the war-ruined city.

But this time the internationally recognized TFG may be in with a fighting chance. Washington has promised air support and teams of Special Forces.

It's not clear in what strength this support will be provided. But it is likely to be the most overt demonstration of U.S. military backing since the ill-fated Operation Restore Hope of 1992, a U.N. humanitarian mission to help the starving population.

The U.S. intervention, which is likely to far more modest than the 1992 fiasco, could be decisive because the Americans are becoming alarmed at the prospect of al-Shebab joining forces with al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula based in an increasingly wobbly Yemen across the Gulf of Aden.

Unmanned U.S. surveillance aircraft have been seen circling over Mogadishu in recent days, apparently pinpointing insurgent positions as the TFG marshals its forces. U.S. Army advisers have been helping train the TFG's forces, which have been largely equipped with millions of dollars' worth of U.S. arms airlifted into Mogadishu over the last few weeks.

The United States has not had an official presence in Somalia since 1993, when U.S. forces pulled out after a disastrous clash with local warlords in which 18 Americans were killed. That battle was depicted in the book and movie "Black Hawk Down."

But it has periodically mounted deadly air and cruise missile strikes against al-Shebab, particularly its leadership cadre and the occasional Special Forces raid.

It's not clear when the offensive will start. The word on the street is sometime in the next few weeks but some analysts say it will likely be at the end of the rainy season in May.

The initial objective will be to secure the capital. That would boost the status, not to mention the legitimacy, of the TFG which has generally been ineffective since it was installed in a U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion in December 2006.

Somalia has not had an effective government since warlords toppled the dictator Siad Barre 19 years ago.

After securing Mogadishu, the offensive, supported by militias allied with the government, for now, at least, is likely to continue against al-Shebab in the countryside west and south toward the border with Kenya.

The TFG's prospects are enhanced by divisions within al-Shebab and with rival militias, which have resulted in several serious clashes. These, and several high-level defections, have weakened the militia.

Indeed, it is the problems plaguing al-Shehab and the Americans' growing concerns for the dangers facing the region, that have encouraged the TFG to take the offensive.

In that regard, Bare Ali Bare, a senior commander with the Hezb ul-Islam militia, al-Shebab's main rival, was killed Tuesday in Mogadishu's main Bakara market by unidentified gunmen. The assassination took place several days after an al-Shebab chieftain was slain in the city.

Still, the caliber of its new forces, mainly some 2,500 young Somalis recruited from refugee camps in Kenya and Ethiopia, is a worrying factor. These troops could find it hard going against the seasoned guerrilla fighters of al-Shebab, which is led by hardened jihadists and control much of southern and central Somalia.

Kenyan counter-terrorism officials say Ahmed al-Fazul Abdullah, mastermind of the 1998 al-Qaida bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, has taken over leadership of al-Shebab.

According to Rashid Abdi of Brussels' International Crisis Group, which monitors events in Somalia, the TFG's young recruits are essentially mercenaries lured by U.S. gold to fight against the highly motivated Islamist warriors of al-Shebab.

"The recruits are primarily from the Ogaden clans who are the dominant community in the area near the Kenya-Somalia border," he said.

"It would appear that the strategic objective for Kenya is to insert these youths into the theater in Somalia to act as a buffer between Kenya and the al-Shebab."

In recent weeks, the Islamists have threatened to attack Kenya for supporting the TFG.

Source: UPI