By EDITH M. LEDERER
Tuesday, March 18, 2008

This could pave the way for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops who helped Somalia rout an Islamic movement in December 2006 and the possible deployment of a U.N. peacekeeping force of up to 27,000 soldiers and 1,500 police, he said.

In a long-delayed report to the Security Council, Ban said the United Nations is developing a three-pronged strategy to promote dialogue between Somalia's transitional government and opposition elements.

The goal, he said, is to ensure "a credible security presence" even before a formal cease-fire, and to strengthen government institutions, humanitarian aid and economic recovery.

Somalia has not had a functioning government since clan-based warlords toppled dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991 and then turned on each other, sinking the poverty-stricken nation of 7 million people into chaos.

Its weak transitional government, backed by Ethiopian troops, is struggling to quash a re-emerging Islamic insurgency that has killed thousands of civilians. The insurgents, whom U.S. officials have linked to al-Qaida, are backed by Ethiopia's archenemy Eritrea.

In December, the Security Council called on Ban to plan for the possible deployment of U.N. peacekeepers to replace the African Union force now in Somalia. The council was reiterating a request it initially made in August that Ban rejected.

The council is scheduled to discuss Somalia on Thursday.

A fact-finding mission led by the U.N. Department of Peacekeeping Operations developed four scenarios — which could take place sequentially — leading to the deployment of a possible U.N. peacekeeping operation.

The first represents the current situation where the transitional government is trying to engage the opposition in political dialogue and the African Union force in Somalia remains at its current level of 2,600 troops, he said.

Under this scenario, Ban said, the U.N. would seek to move a substantial number of staff from Nairobi to Somalia.

The second scenario requires 60 to 70 percent of the opposition to support a political dialogue and an improvement in security so the U.N. can have a stronger presence in Mogadishu, Ban said. Under this scenario, he said, the U.N. would relocate to the capital, which would require beefed-up security arrangements.

The third scenario envisions 60 to 70 percent of the opposition implementing a code of conduct on the use of arms, and agreement on a gradual withdrawal of Ethiopian forces, Ban said.

Under this scenario, a broad-based political agreement would be followed by deployment of "an impartial stabilization force ... to allow the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces, prevent a security vacuum and provide impetus to the political dialogue," he said.

An estimated 8,000 troops, well-trained in counterinsurgency and counter-terrorist techniques, would be required, together with international police officers, Ban said.

"A United Nations force could not be tasked with this role," he stressed, citing the U.N. military operation in Somalia in 1993 that undermined U.N. political and humanitarian efforts.

"As a result, the Security Council could consider this option only if offers were forthcoming from capable member states ready to form a coalition of the willing," Ban said.

In the fourth scenario, 70 percent of the parties must agree to share power, renounce violence, lay down arms, and support deployment of a U.N. peacekeeping mission, with 15 to 21 infantry battalions and up to 27,000 troops and 1,500 police, he said.

(This version CORRECTS that the Islamic movement was routed in December 2006, not January 2007.)

Source: AP, Mar 19, 2008

Arraweelo10 @ 3/19/2008 7:00 PM EST  UN waxay sameeyaan waxa mareykanka uu dhaho ee ha isku lug goynina inaad wax kale aad heshaan. Laakiin hadal hadal aad bay ugu fiican yihiin, scenario this and that.

wadaad yare @ 3/19/2008 1:16 PM EST  sompeace10 waan kugu raacsanahay 100% ineysan UN ku u aqoonsaneyn Impagati iney tahay dawlad shaqeyneysa, laakiin way isticmaalayaan. Hadaad xusuusato markii qab qablayaashu Muqdisho joogeen magaceeda xataa lama soo qaadi jirin oo qab qablayaashey Mareykanku la mucaamili jireen. Markii qab qablayaashii la cayriyey ayey qashankaas shabad ahaan usoo qaateen si ay denbiyadooda ugu maxlashaan. hadaba sheekadii dhab ayey noqotey, dadkii isku dan gaarayeyna oo xumaanta isku baheystayna culeys ayaa soo fuuley, iney kala siibtaan ayeyna ku dhowyihiin hada. Maanta qoladii koobiga loo bixiyey iyo itoobiyaankiiba jab weyn ayaa gaarey. Koobigiina fagax wuu dhaafey firxadkoodi. Dadkaan indhaha adag ee kaalinta labeebnimada ah raaliga ku noqdey waa iney labada saf ee dagaalku ka dhaxeeyo ka dhex baxaan.

somalipeace10 @ 3/19/2008 11:31 AM EST  Brother Wadaad yare, Waan ogahay in Maraykanka iyo Ethiopia ay dalkanaga dhibaato ka wadaan oo ay la dagaaleen nadadda Soomaalidu keensatay.Waxaan ula jeedaa shuruudaha UNta keentay oo ah in Ethiopia dalka laga saaro, iyo in dadka Soomaaliyeed heshiiyaan.Waxaa kale oo ka muuqata in Unta ayna aqoonsanayn qabqablayaasha dagaalka , sababtoo ah shuruudoodu waa in qabaa'ilka iyo kooxaha Soomaaliya heshiiyaan. Dadaalka lagu xuraynaayo dalka waa soconaayaa.

ahmedios @ 3/19/2008 11:23 AM EST  Just go back to recent history. Ruthless warlords ruled Somalia. The Un, the AU and the Arab union did not have the courage or the desire to help in sending peace making forces. That was done for both Liberia and Zaire and today they are enjoying a relative peace. What that does was to create a secure situation that allowed those countries to choose a government. What Somalia got instead was a government of warlords - the excuse was they might pacify the country –since they were the problem to begin with. When they could not agree among themselves, their leaders invited Ethiopia and we know what happened since. Now that the UN is talking about peacekeeping force and if they bring real peacekeepers - perhaps it is time to dissolve the warlord government. This will take the stress and tension and will give all an equal footing to campaign and it will give the people of Somalia a secure environment to choose who they want to lead Somalia. That seems to be easy solution…something that comes in short supply in Somalia

wadaad yare @ 3/19/2008 11:21 AM EST  sompeace10 Waxaan u maleynayaa in warka UN ku uusan haba yaraatee qiimo ku fadhin wax laga soo qaadana mudneyn. Waxa muhim ah in la eego mawqifka Mareykanka iyo Itoobiya oo is baheysi xaaraan ah kusoo weerarey somalia. Mareykankuna hada ayuuba ururka shabaab ku darey liiska argagixisada. Meeshaan xal cid ka rabtaa ma jirtee faduul iyo dano guracan ayaa loo socdaa. Qolada soomaalidaa ee shisheeyahaas danaha guracan wata laga reebi waayeyna iyagaa ugu danbeynta arki doona in waxa shisheeyuhu u sheegayo aysan dani ugu jirin. Waxaa la yiri: Nin qori dab ah haya daa lama yiraahdo. Saakey ayaa ugu danbeysoo askartii soomaalida aheyd ee dadweynaha Muqdisho koobiga u bixiyeen iyagii iyo Itoobiyaankiiba xeradii Maslax waa laga cayriyey. Kasoo aqri puntlanpost.com hadaadan bogaga kale ku kalsooneyn. Mareykanku Xamaas ayuu ku darey liiska argagixisada xoog ayeyna ka qaadey. Xizbulaahi xoog ayuu ka qaadey. Muqaawa´mada soomaaliyeedna xoog ayey ka qaadayaan, dadka liiska argagixisada dadka ku guul guulayana ha ogaadeen in liiskaas dhibka ka yimaada aan loogaga liidan.