Uganda peace force may quit Somalia

By Conan Businge
& Agencies

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THE African Union (AU) peacekeeping force in Somalia may pull out if Ethiopia withdraws its forces. Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2006 and toppled the Islamic Courts’ Union - a hardline Islamist regime - that had been in power for six months.

“If the Ethiopians pull out of Somalia, the AU force will also pull out because it will not have adequate numbers (of peacekeeping soldiers),” foreign affairs permanent secretary. James Mugume told dpa news agency.

Ethiopia said in November it would withdraw its several thousand soldiers unconditionally by the end of the year.
On Thursday, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi broke the news that the AU force would also leave and promised to help about 2,500 Ugandan and Burundian peacekeepers there to pull out.

However, army spokesperson Maj. Paddy Ankunda said: “We have not yet taken a decision on the withdrawal. We may or may not withdraw.” Ankunda said “at the moment we are in consultations with other stakeholders in the Somali peace process.”

Ethiopian forces have been battling the Islamists since overthrowing them. A bloody insurgency in southern and central Somalia has been raging on since the early 2007.

Aid agencies say around 10,000 civilians have died, and over one million have fled as al-Shabaab, a militant splinter group of the Islamists, has made huge gains.

The insurgent group is now perched on the edge of Mogadishu and is attempting to over-run the ineffective transitional federal government.

Should both Ethiopia and the AU leave, the only force standing between the insurgents and victory would be a collection of pro-government armed militia and poorly trained recruits.

Mugume said the AU force would only remain in Somalia if long- standing calls for a UN peacekeeping force to be deployed were answered.

“If the Ethiopians are replaced by other troops like UN peacekeepers, a number of about 8,000, we will stay,” he said.
However, the UN has appeared reluctant to deploy and analysts say this is unlikely to change.

“I do not think there is a realistic prospect for substitute troops,” Roger Middleton, a Horn of Africa analyst at London-based think tank Chatham House, told German Press Agency, dpa.

The AU force was supposed to have been much larger, but many nations have failed to meet their commitments. As a result, the force is undermanned and overwhelmed.

Middleton said the AU peacekeepers would have little choice but to leave should the Ethiopians stick to their promise to go.

Hardline Islamists have refused to talk peace unless the Ethiopians first left Somalia, but it is not clear if they will now come to the table or continue to advance. Al-Shabaab has rejected a peace deal agreed between moderate opposition figures and the government.

Source: New Vision, Dec 14, 2008

Hiiraan Online